Yesterday we talked about surveys and how they’re tough to believe. This was in reference to LTE growing 404 percent between 2010 and 2014. It’s not even 2010 yet, and there are no LTE networks, so it’s kind of tough to project that. Today we get a similar prediction from WiMax. This one claims that revenues from WiMax subscribers will exceed $15 billion by 2014. This presumes a widespread adoption of the technology, which we know is all but a given. Still, it seems just as plausible as the LTE projection. We don’t know what the mobile broadband landscape will look like once both LTE and WiMax networks cover the country, so it’s almost impossible to make predictions about their growth five years from now.
Here’s a telling line from the survey report: “WiMAX will provide an improved experience for broadband customers who are receiving low speed DSL or cable modem services, or at the limit of DSL coverage.” Hopefully there will be a focus on this in the U.S. WiMax has a chance to be so much more than a 4G alternative to LTE (which is not 4G). It can be a general broadband provider. Since it can deliver faster speeds and cover larger areas, it can replace outdated DSL lines.
Both LTE and WiMax will face significant hurdles over the next few years. The companies backing them will have to show the ability to overcome them in order for the technologies to survive. In other words, it might not be just the platform, it might be who is advocating said platform that makes the difference.
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