With test markets for LTE technology right around the bend, there has been an increasing level of hype recently. LTE enthusiasts beam about the technology’s potential, citing speed and coverage of network as two factors which give it an edge unlike other technology. Clearly, they’re trying to put it in a position where it demolishes WiMax right out of the gate. The latest in the hype/propaganda campaign is a forecast which shows that LTE will grow 404 percent between 2010 and 2014. This would put it at a faster pace than its predecessor, 3G (even though LTE is technically still a third generation technology).
The question, of course, is of why LTE will grow so rapidly. After all, WiMax has a significant head start. By the time Verizon launches its first test LTE market WiMax will cover eight U.S. markets. By the time Verizon makes its first official launch, WiMax could cover over a dozen. And by the time Verizon has the network nationwide, WiMax will have already been there. So why does LTE have this advantage?
For the first time, most of the major players, operators, and vendors alike, are behind the same mobile standard, notes Daniel Locke, analyst at Pyramid Research and author of the report. “By using LTE’s more efficient and cost-effective flat IP architecture, mobile operators can transfer the savings to end users in the form of lower prices for access, faster data rates, and higher traffic allowances for a wider adoption of mobile data services,” he says. “To date, 27 mobile operators worldwide have publicly committed to deploying LTE, with 12 of them expected to roll out commercial services in 2010 and the remainder during 2011 and 2012,” he adds.
That is true. Having a universal standard is of great advantage. It’s one reason, actually, why the U.S. wireless industry is so frustrating. Of the Big Four, half are GSM and half are CDMA. The rest of the world, for the most part, is GSM. This makes for some compatibility issues which could otherwise have worked to the carriers’ advantages. This time the two biggest players in the market, Verizon and AT&T, have chosen LTE, so it could create a more efficient environment.
The only snag in the issue could come if WiMax catches on. The presumption at this point, at least from the LTE crowd, is that LTE will crush WiMax and force Sprint to take yet another loss and switch to LTE, thereby creation a national standard. However, if that comes to pass, there’s a good chance Sprint won’t be around to make the switch.
Again, this sounds like a huge propaganda campaign to tout the benefits of LTE. Many of them are real. But to think that we can accurately forecast growth in 2009 of the next five years is a bit much. Let’s see how WiMax is received before saying LTE will grow 404 percent in five years.
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